Tennis · resolved market
Miami Open, Qualification: Darja Semenistaja vs Monika Ekstrand
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x849a9709b47183e0e3f17a3f96ad3d0dd85b2b92deaa9e38a4331ce6bd6f4601
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Darja Semenistajaof Darja Semenistaja, Monika Ekstrand
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,640 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Monika Ekstrand | 0c | 6,223$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…008ebacked Monika Ekstrand | 4c | 2,755$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Monika Ekstrand | 25c | 1,973$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Monika Ekstrand | 19c | 1,661$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.34 | 223 | 37.7%84 W · 139 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Monika Ekstrand | 25c | 1,489$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.37 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Monika Ekstrand | 26c | 1,406$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.56 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…04edbacked Monika Ekstrand | 3c | 1,381$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed Monika Ekstrand | 14c | 1,229$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.85 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c32…d322backed Darja Semenistaja | 75c | 1,205$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.07 | 120 | 66.7%80 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Monika Ekstrand | 1c | 1,175$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 255 | 0.8%2 W · 253 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Darja Semenistaja | 74c | 1,132$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.35 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Monika Ekstrand | 5c | 959.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Monika Ekstrand | 5c | 933.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Darja Semenistaja | 77c | 616.29$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.75 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…4a85backed Darja Semenistaja | 75c | 598.22$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.22 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b7…3e1cbacked Monika Ekstrand | 23c | 578.17$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Darja Semenistaja | 75c | 523.06$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…e759backed Darja Semenistaja | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 608 | 56.6%344 W · 264 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Monika Ekstrand | 21c | 463$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Darja Semenistaja | 74c | 457.78$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Darja Semenistaja | 77c | 450.87$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Monika Ekstrand | 5c | 401.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Darja Semenistaja | 74c | 396.74$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Darja Semenistaja | 74c | 338$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Monika Ekstrand | 6c | 281$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Monika Ekstrand | 26c | 278.34$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Darja Semenistaja | 75c | 236.69$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 262 | 54.6%143 W · 119 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Monika Ekstrand | 23c | 208.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +6.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Monika Ekstrand | 27c | 207$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Darja Semenistaja | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Darja Semenistaja | 77c | 166.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Monika Ekstrand | 25c | 158.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 958 | 46.6%446 W · 512 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Darja Semenistaja | 74c | 144$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 990 | 56%554 W · 436 L | +32.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…39f3backed Darja Semenistaja | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Monika Ekstrand | 25c | 131.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Darja Semenistaja | 74c | 126.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Monika Ekstrand | 19c | 110.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Darja Semenistaja | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 849 | 68.4%581 W · 268 L | +25.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Darja Semenistaja | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 147 | 46.3%68 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Monika Ekstrand | 25c | 98.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Darja Semenistaja | 74c | 91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Monika Ekstrand | 27c | 85.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Monika Ekstrand | 23c | 82.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Monika Ekstrand | 22c | 81.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Monika Ekstrand | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Darja Semenistaja | 79c | 79.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 412 | 72.8%300 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Darja Semenistaja | 74c | 78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Monika Ekstrand | 26c | 75.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e7…174fbacked Monika Ekstrand | 23c | 73.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x547c…7983backed Monika Ekstrand | 23c | 69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…1bd7backed Darja Semenistaja | 79c | 63.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 109 | 67.9%74 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Monika Ekstrand | 25c | 57.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bd…fa2ebacked Monika Ekstrand | 24c | 57.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1039…2914backed Darja Semenistaja | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 287 | 64.1%184 W · 103 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Darja Semenistaja | 76c | 38.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Darja Semenistaja | 77c | 36.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Darja Semenistaja | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc871…2f76backed Darja Semenistaja | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacf7…a5ffbacked Darja Semenistaja | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…d2b5backed Darja Semenistaja | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 416 | 68%283 W · 133 L | +23.6wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Darja Semenistaja | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 599 | 65.8%394 W · 205 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Darja Semenistaja | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked Darja Semenistaja | 77c | 21.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 474 | 47.9%227 W · 247 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d0…a663backed Darja Semenistaja | 78c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Darja Semenistaja | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 210 | 72.4%152 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449e…4f8ebacked Darja Semenistaja | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Darja Semenistaja | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 347 | 44.4%154 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.