Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84a3588d6a06f1ad47cefe4cdb2ca87d1ab5dc7cdaaafd2032d8979d831dd23f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof MODUS, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Team Nemesis | 58c | 3,903$2,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.91 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked MODUS | 43c | 2,525$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.61 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Team Nemesis | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed MODUS | 43c | 1,085$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.48 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked MODUS | 37c | 1,067$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.64 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed MODUS | 1c | 825.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 45c | 507.98$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.43 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MODUS | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Nemesis | 76c | 334.23$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Team Nemesis | 56c | 180.14$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Team Nemesis | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MODUS | 43c | 162.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MODUS | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed MODUS | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Nemesis | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Nemesis | 75c | 107.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked MODUS | 41c | 97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis | 70c | 59.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MODUS | 19c | 52.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Team Nemesis | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed MODUS | 31c | 32.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Team Nemesis | 78c | 25.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Team Nemesis | 65c | 22.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Nemesis | 69c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group BTeam Nemesis won
- Game Handicap: MODUS (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)Team Nemesis won
- Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)MODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.