Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hannover 96 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84ab9d4d3a970228a5320b0c6b6f74bc19f79009295f3cf0e9d49d45bceb3bae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea32…8870backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 608.64$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.94 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 375.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 18c | 274$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 80c | 256.65$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 76c | 104$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked No | 76c | 98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed No | 76c | 97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 11c | 92.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked No | 76c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed No | 76c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked No | 76c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c4…b7a9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hannover 96 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw?this page
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-01-24?Yes won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-01-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.