Weather · resolved market
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84b3400dad428b2a371bf01ce78cb5add558df3c4c4286c2582eb188327ad3ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 2,240$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.98 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 53c | 1,062$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.65 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 562.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 10c | 284.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed No | 80c | 206.89$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…7fe9backed No | 75c | 178.93$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…0424backed No | 62c | 81.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 79.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 66.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed No | 50c | 58.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…3204backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?this page
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?No won
- Will there be more than 14 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.