Tennis · resolved market
HSBC Championships: Fearnley vs. Moutet
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84ba229292c04594cf492d744f57e101f165dd30fbe0ff5c5a92dbf2a063ef09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fearnleyof Fearnley, Moutet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf557…18debacked Fearnley | 64c | 3,932$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.82 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Moutet | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Moutet | 39c | 2,534$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Fearnley | 65c | 1,362$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Fearnley | 61c | 1,263$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.72 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Fearnley | 60c | 1,159$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.48 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0f…4a79backed Moutet | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…00e0backed Fearnley | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…2583backed Moutet | 38c | 995$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…95abbacked Moutet | 38c | 985$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…141ebacked Fearnley | 62c | 980$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…637ebacked Fearnley | 62c | 850$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc918…a005backed Fearnley | 62c | 830$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Moutet | 38c | 789.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.2 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Moutet | 40c | 758.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Fearnley | 59c | 678.33$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.33 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Moutet | 36c | 550.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ace…dccebacked Moutet | 38c | 550$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Moutet | 39c | 519.98$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Moutet | 31c | 481.78$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…5cabbacked Moutet | 38c | 450$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fearnley | 60c | 400.26$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Fearnley | 61c | 399.99$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Moutet | 35c | 397.1$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.99 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Fearnley | 66c | 317.84$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Moutet | 28c | 301.83$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Moutet | 38c | 260.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Moutet | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Moutet | 40c | 247.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…dd07backed Fearnley | 62c | 165$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8990…79adbacked Fearnley | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Moutet | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Fearnley | 76c | 133$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Fearnley | 71c | 131$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Moutet | 32c | 96.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…bb91backed Moutet | 51c | 88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Fearnley | 62c | 72.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…f7edbacked Moutet | 39c | 71.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Moutet | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…fa84backed Fearnley | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Fearnley | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Moutet | 33c | 31.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Fearnley | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Fearnley | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e89…268bbacked Fearnley | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Fearnley | 65c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Fearnley | 75c | 14.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.