Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65–66°F on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8539711d5197f965c155a61a7e60d2e88ef143e9fe2ed56b5e76caa06307fa0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 47c | 285.86$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.16 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 5c | 235.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Yes | 65c | 205.39$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 15c | 163.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 16c | 139.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 29c | 125.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…d4d2backed Yes | 68c | 88.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 37c | 82.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 25c | 81.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +7.1wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Yes | 54c | 79.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 36c | 67.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…ea53backed Yes | 71c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 29c | 61.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…119ebacked No | 79c | 59.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…8401backed Yes | 69c | 51.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…b4e9backed Yes | 26c | 51.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…b5d2backed Yes | 57c | 50.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…70eabacked Yes | 38c | 39.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…0792backed No | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes | 73c | 33.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf9…812cbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f2…9518backed Yes | 80c | 28.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 70c | 27.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65–66°F on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or higher on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61–62°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63–64°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 69–70°F on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.