Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8558bf8814a7a0bae6e865f551656e9420b57a24ecb4f14fe4646590e0dee55d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 183.46$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 163.09$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 25c | 93.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 29c | 82.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 80.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 24c | 68.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 77c | 64.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 78c | 63.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 61.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 21c | 58.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 54.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 26c | 51.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 76c | 50.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 49.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 46.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 41.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 37.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 33c | 34.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 79c | 27.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 74c | 25.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 76c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 80c | 16.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 78c | 14.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.