Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8568563d59506adc13c3ac2b5d02b2978416430e299161e46079249f4d948a19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 3c | 445$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 331.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 323.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.33 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 236.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 76c | 185.87$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 16c | 181.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 156.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…b1d1backed Yes | 20c | 151.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 17c | 147.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 123.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Yes | 39c | 122.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 19c | 109.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 17c | 79.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 17c | 78.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…57f6backed Yes | 22c | 69.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked Yes | 49c | 58.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…9a56backed Yes | 42c | 55.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 54.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 52.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 51.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 22c | 50.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 48.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 32c | 47.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 43.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 80c | 39.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked No | 79c | 37.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 62c | 33.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 38c | 32.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 34c | 31.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked No | 79c | 24.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 78c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.