Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92ec2756423b4183cb1e190c932977f3e8d08a128f5476faf25649c0f246bb37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 58c | 947.05$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.58 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 746.86$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.62 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 63c | 328.36$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.4 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 180.3$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 150.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 141.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 52c | 132.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 41c | 107.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 46c | 107.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 48c | 106.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 37c | 102.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 99.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 61c | 96.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 12c | 93.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 39c | 89.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 48c | 88.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 28c | 87.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed No | 50c | 76.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 58c | 72.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…b1d1backed No | 52c | 69.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 64.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 52c | 63.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 63.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…6938backed No | 34c | 55.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 53c | 53.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 49c | 49.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 48.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…9d2ebacked No | 41c | 48.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 52c | 47.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 46.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 40c | 45.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 44.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 42.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70f…4306backed No | 59c | 40.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…4b7bbacked No | 51c | 38.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…8861backed Yes | 77c | 38.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…57f6backed No | 48c | 33.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 32.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 41c | 32.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed No | 42c | 31.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 43c | 28.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c7…feccbacked Yes | 51c | 28.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 28.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 51c | 24.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 48c | 23.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed No | 47c | 21.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 61c | 20.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 79c | 19.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 58c | 18.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.