Fifa International · resolved market
Will Costa Rica beat Suriname?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85919ee18a021343b5b403bad61a320de6017142f9e952df0b665fc424ac2ffa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 37c | 1,132$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.97 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…92f7backed Yes | 63c | 663.49$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.49 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 15c | 330.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 61c | 329.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.81 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Yes | 63c | 316$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 43c | 249.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.32 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 43c | 214.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…1efabacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Yes | 60c | 165$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 72c | 155$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 48c | 21.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…ccdbbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Costa Rica beat Suriname?this page
- Will Costa Rica vs. Suriname end in a draw?No won
- Will Suriname beat Costa Rica?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.