Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85a3dcd7457fa215d6530cb8c9cd1efa333cbb03f57373b47bb7174aed2b7015
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 4c | 419.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 272.06$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 6c | 270.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 70c | 247.46$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 46c | 171.25$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 23c | 155.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 112.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 108.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 29c | 108.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 102.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 56c | 97.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 92.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 56c | 90.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 84.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 69c | 83.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 80.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 30c | 79.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 56c | 69.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 68c | 62.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 68c | 60.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 54.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 52c | 51.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 50.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…1dc1backed No | 75c | 50.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 50.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 57c | 50.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ba…c42fbacked Yes | 41c | 48.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 39c | 48.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 23c | 47.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415e…e151backed No | 75c | 43.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…e423backed Yes | 34c | 43.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c78…4f7bbacked Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 60c | 41.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…8d31backed Yes | 76c | 40.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 52c | 40.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed No | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 57c | 39.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 64c | 37.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 65c | 37.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 45c | 35.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 58c | 33.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 34c | 32.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 75c | 32.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 28.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…0059backed No | 68c | 26.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…0e23backed No | 45c | 26.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 25.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 45c | 25.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 61c | 24.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…b14fbacked No | 65c | 23.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…ec49backed No | 66c | 21.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 55c | 21.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…5049backed Yes | 66c | 20.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 63c | 20.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 76c | 20.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…e145backed Yes | 61c | 19.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…d1f3backed Yes | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 18.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked No | 76c | 16.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 66c | 15.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 66c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.