NHL · resolved market
AHL: Hershey Bears vs. Belleville Senators
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85a44ec00f65c83103ace7efcb4359843688b6196359974ac23964170aec292b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hershey Bearsof Hershey Bears, Belleville Senators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Belleville Senators | 50c | 2,025$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.44 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Hershey Bears | 51c | 1,198$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.94 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Hershey Bears | 50c | 252$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Hershey Bears | 48c | 238.16$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…bcc1backed Hershey Bears | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Belleville Senators | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Hershey Bears | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa8…1289backed Hershey Bears | 50c | 99.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked Hershey Bears | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Hershey Bears | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Belleville Senators | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.