Tennis · resolved market
Chile Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Elmer Moeller
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85bbc4653d62c6dcafcd40aa7430e053282f54cd2eaa1ffb85698d2fe44e3e7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Cerundolo, Moeller
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Moeller | 15c | 15,340$2,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Moeller | 0c | 11,913$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Moeller | 17c | 9,649$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.57 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Moeller | 15c | 7,619$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.87 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Moeller | 15c | 5,894$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.65 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Moeller | 5c | 5,090$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.6 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Moeller | 14c | 4,259$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.82 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Moeller | 18c | 4,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.99 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Moeller | 2c | 3,591$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Moeller | 2c | 3,512$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Moeller | 15c | 2,473$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.38 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Moeller | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Moeller | 12c | 1,963$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.86 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Moeller | 13c | 1,881$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.46 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Moeller | 5c | 1,869$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Moeller | 17c | 1,041$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.96 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…fef0backed Moeller | 2c | 1,030$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 34.5%78 W · 148 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Moeller | 17c | 750$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Moeller | 10c | 570.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Moeller | 20c | 517$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…5d44backed Moeller | 5c | 362.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93cb…3485backed Moeller | 18c | 347.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 306 | 39.9%122 W · 184 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…6a3abacked Moeller | 18c | 237.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Moeller | 16c | 226.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Moeller | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 373 | 39.1%146 W · 227 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…95dabacked Moeller | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 453 | 43.9%199 W · 254 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Moeller | 17c | 175.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Moeller | 16c | 168.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 181 | 33.1%60 W · 121 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Moeller | 17c | 124.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Moeller | 13c | 100.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Moeller | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1039…2914backed Cerundolo | 78c | 63.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 287 | 64.1%184 W · 103 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Moeller | 17c | 61.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Cerundolo | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chile Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Elmer Moellerthis page
- Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Moeller (+1.5)Cerundolo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.