CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: OG vs Nexus (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8644d99ca9091d981057da3be5e437549a2a3a68c0de352911a0dc078e24df27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof OG, Nexus
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,187 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Nexus | 26c | 4,430$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.4 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked OG | 74c | 3,664$2,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.73 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked OG | 77c | 2,511$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.81 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Nexus | 28c | 2,500$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Nexus | 26c | 2,459$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.83 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked OG | 74c | 2,234$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.78 | 211 | 46%97 W · 114 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Nexus | 22c | 1,952$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.28 | 380 | 37.4%142 W · 238 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed OG | 74c | 1,914$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.74 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed OG | 73c | 1,371$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.29 | 807 | 44.6%360 W · 447 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Nexus | 28c | 1,094$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.91 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed OG | 73c | 1,000$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.01 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked OG | 73c | 1,000$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f8…22babacked OG | 75c | 803.57$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.57 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Nexus | 29c | 788.9$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.78 | 259 | 34%88 W · 171 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Nexus | 27c | 459$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.91 | 330 | 44.5%147 W · 183 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Nexus | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 275 | 30.9%85 W · 190 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…0330backed Nexus | 27c | 308$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacb…9458backed OG | 73c | 308$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…1d79backed Nexus | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 120 | 21.7%26 W · 94 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed OG | 80c | 281.05$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked OG | 72c | 279.52$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Nexus | 28c | 151.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 392 | 37.2%146 W · 246 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Nexus | 16c | 120.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked OG | 74c | 115.54$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Nexus | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…0f4cbacked Nexus | 27c | 103.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 265 | 35.5%94 W · 171 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Nexus | 21c | 103.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…9664backed Nexus | 21c | 101.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed OG | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 463 | 44.5%206 W · 257 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Nexus | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf8…1e82backed OG | 75c | 96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked OG | 72c | 93.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 180 | 63.9%115 W · 65 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nexus | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked OG | 77c | 86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 489 | 48.7%238 W · 251 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…ec03backed OG | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked OG | 71c | 69.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed Nexus | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Nexus | 27c | 52.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed OG | 73c | 52.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Nexus | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked OG | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 543 | 46.2%251 W · 292 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked OG | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 497 | 45.9%228 W · 269 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed OG | 76c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 410 | 54.6%224 W · 186 L | +29.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed OG | 76c | 42.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked OG | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 171 | 50.3%86 W · 85 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d16…0abbbacked OG | 73c | 26.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed OG | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed OG | 72c | 20.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 456 | 39.3%179 W · 277 L | -29.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…83ccbacked OG | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d7…f131backed OG | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 334 | 51.5%172 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…bf4bbacked OG | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked OG | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 464 | 47.6%221 W · 243 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked OG | 76c | 16.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.