Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86805fd5972328c3b4da432eeb01026d1c0cc56ab10c625d57e7fa6409109d1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 1c | 4,339$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 65c | 410$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 49c | 405.25$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.98 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 51c | 300$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 50c | 242.88$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.82 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 13c | 238.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 51c | 226.87$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x487a…5040backed Yes | 65c | 156.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes | 15c | 138.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddda…0212backed Yes | 69c | 135.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 68c | 125.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…a949backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 54c | 93.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 81.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…efc8backed Yes | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 62c | 75.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031a…3f1abacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 46.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…7abbbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd089…88e6backed Yes | 69c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…f8c4backed Yes | 68c | 36.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 34c | 33.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 56c | 31.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…fd74backed Yes | 67c | 31.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe318…3506backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d3…6f76backed Yes | 74c | 20.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on November 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 70°F or higher on November 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on November 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on November 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.