Token Launches · resolved market
Hyperliquid Up or Down on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86af40db1cddd3fc5546e380dd1a9ef8dcb954d9e53cf82525a7b3f87acd70ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05c2…3888backed Up | 49c | 850$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…6c38backed Up | 49c | 845$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84c…208cbacked Down | 51c | 830$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa75…3caabacked Up | 49c | 705$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c5…866bbacked Down | 51c | 685$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…982dbacked Down | 51c | 515$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…9d23backed Up | 49c | 515$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…7079backed Down | 51c | 435$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…9104backed Up | 49c | 415$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e23…99d7backed Down | 51c | 390$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 3c | 289$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…c408backed Up | 49c | 275$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa90c…82e8backed Down | 51c | 245$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d19…57eabacked Down | 51c | 185$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb7…01f3backed Down | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3c…710abacked Down | 51c | 165$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3987…a82dbacked Up | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Up | 71c | 149.5$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…5c68backed Up | 49c | 145$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…e470backed Up | 50c | 145$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…7a1dbacked Down | 51c | 130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Up | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…8ff1backed Up | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…45c5backed Down | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd6…48c1backed Down | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…2f4bbacked Down | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b05…396dbacked Down | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30b…1adfbacked Down | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…174fbacked Down | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc349…754fbacked Down | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662f…ac37backed Up | 77c | 35.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140a…5b52backed Down | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Up | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b5…b082backed Down | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.