Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on December 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86b381df35a022183833764db13fb355e58080f11a6797fe33f0c999ec8a0d0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3e2…787cbacked No | 50c | 5,538$2,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…e2debacked Yes | 50c | 5,538$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…fee2backed No | 50c | 5,532$2,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,767 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff6…5905backed Yes | 50c | 5,531$2,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,765.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…0af4backed No | 50c | 5,524$2,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,762 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc4…c122backed Yes | 50c | 5,524$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc55a…de2ebacked No | 50c | 5,511$2,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,755.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba28…c0d6backed Yes | 50c | 5,438$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,718.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked Yes | 4c | 904.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 24c | 732.57$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.54 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 58c | 235$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 127$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 65c | 56.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 35c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 41.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…7508backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C on December 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on December 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on December 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C or below on December 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.