Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86f71561c388d3cce745578f832cc927f76f918286d91eb3fccb9cdc7a6ad30f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Argentinaof Argentina, Zambia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Argentina | 62c | 1,423$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.45 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Zambia | 36c | 1,043$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.25 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Argentina | 60c | 523.87$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.55 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +21.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Argentina | 60c | 406.76$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Zambia | 40c | 358.25$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.97 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3166…62a2backed Zambia | 32c | 296.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Zambia | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Zambia | 33c | 217.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Argentina | 70c | 217.03$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 304 | 63.5%193 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Zambia | 36c | 179.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Zambia | 40c | 138.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Argentina | 59c | 124.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Zambia | 42c | 106.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed Argentina | 66c | 104.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b11…6f75backed Argentina | 68c | 101.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Zambia | 32c | 58.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Argentina | 66c | 52.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Zambia | 40c | 43.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Argentina | 68c | 36.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…f12ebacked Argentina | 64c | 30.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…5b59backed Zambia | 35c | 30.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Argentina | 64c | 26.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Argentina | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Argentina (-2.5)this page
- Argentina vs. Zambia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Argentina vs. Zambia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Zambia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Zambia: O/U 3.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Zambia: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Argentina (-1.5)Argentina won
- Spread: Zambia (-1.5)Argentina won
- Spread: Zambia (-2.5)Argentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.