Fifa International · resolved market
Argentina vs. Zambia: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd43cec2b98cf7b5fdad5f690a0c7b56b1a9c0d0cafe01a8f4c617ed7a378def
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 4,318$2,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,574.67 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Over | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.99 | 385 | 26.8%103 W · 282 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 57c | 1,796$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.33 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b22…ddcabacked Under | 59c | 1,647$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 1,347$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.28 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 44c | 1,306$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.99 | 202 | 62.4%126 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Over | 61c | 1,223$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.11 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 45c | 999$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Over | 80c | 987.81$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.56 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 38c | 923.59$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.95 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 15c | 899.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 44c | 873.04$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.1 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 863.18$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.81 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Over | 42c | 607.98$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.24 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 40c | 499.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.97 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…c230backed Under | 20c | 450$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 20c | 449.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Under | 58c | 438.66$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.42 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Over | 57c | 404$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed Under | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 75c | 391.51$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 233 | 63.5%148 W · 85 L | +19.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 42c | 383.97$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.81 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 53c | 375.45$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.82 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Over | 56c | 347.71$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 57c | 295.28$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 304 | 63.5%193 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 59c | 250$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 70c | 225.68$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.4 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…b47dbacked Under | 10c | 224.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…cd92backed Under | 59c | 177.54$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 44c | 147.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 47c | 133.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 121.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 59c | 114.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 19c | 111.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 823 | 40.9%337 W · 486 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 61c | 96.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Under | 46c | 79.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…53f1backed Under | 60c | 79.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab98…5854backed Under | 46c | 68.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…3c32backed Over | 62c | 63.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 54c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 54c | 63.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…78aebacked Over | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…2d13backed Over | 25c | 57.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +111%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 62c | 54.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…4f34backed Under | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 31c | 51.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 52c | 48.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 43c | 48.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Under | 62c | 46.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Under | 44c | 42.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 50c | 40.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 40c | 40.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 39.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 34c | 39.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +21.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Under | 45c | 37.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 48c | 34.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Under | 68c | 32.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…5a14backed Under | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 42c | 30.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 387 | 45%174 W · 213 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…bc51backed Over | 61c | 29.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 68c | 25.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 41c | 25.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 63c | 23.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Over | 55c | 21.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 72 | 73.6%53 W · 19 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cc…2e39backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…0d4abacked Under | 60c | 19.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…93b1backed Under | 59c | 19.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 69c | 18.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…2e3abacked Under | 62c | 16.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 78c | 13.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 78c | 13.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Argentina vs. Zambia: O/U 4.5this page
- Argentina vs. Zambia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Argentina vs. Zambia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Zambia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Argentina vs. Zambia: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Argentina (-1.5)Argentina won
- Spread: Argentina (-2.5)Argentina won
- Spread: Zambia (-1.5)Argentina won
- Spread: Zambia (-2.5)Argentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.