Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FCI Levadia (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8745cf69285ead14ae2abf92a0b3d024b90a8e29f1005ce660e79ae5576afd91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FCI Levadiaof FCI Levadia, Caernarfon Town FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Caernarfon Town FC | 65c | 1,103$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.86 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed FCI Levadia | 35c | 676.7$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.89 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Caernarfon Town FC | 66c | 433.59$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.69 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed FCI Levadia | 29c | 431$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.01 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed FCI Levadia | 29c | 353.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.94 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d2…ae70backed Caernarfon Town FC | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FCI Levadia | 33c | 216.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.31 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FCI Levadia | 53c | 188$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed FCI Levadia | 32c | 157.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.27 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Caernarfon Town FC | 68c | 98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Caernarfon Town FC | 65c | 92.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Caernarfon Town FC | 68c | 74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0297…e67fbacked Caernarfon Town FC | 68c | 58.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed FCI Levadia | 30c | 49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Caernarfon Town FC | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FCI Levadia | 34c | 35.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Caernarfon Town FC | 68c | 22.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Caernarfon Town FC | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FCI Levadia (-1.5)this page
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: FCI Levadia 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: O/U 3.5Over won
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: O/U 4.5Over won
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FCI Levadia (-2.5)FCI Levadia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.