Europa Conference League · resolved market
Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a4058617b87e8be93a4edb41fc2d7477f7680b7296f19e846f90eca5812045a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 51c | 916.51$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.11 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 862.71$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.22 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 63c | 117$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 37c | 85.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Under | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 64c | 73.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 62c | 69.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 69c | 64.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 57c | 64.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 63c | 63.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…c118backed Under | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 37c | 46.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +58%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…2cc5backed Over | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Over | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 73c | 17.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 67c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: O/U 2.5this page
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: FCI Levadia 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: O/U 3.5Over won
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: O/U 4.5Over won
- Caernarfon Town FC vs. FCI Levadia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FCI Levadia (-1.5)FCI Levadia won
- Spread: FCI Levadia (-2.5)FCI Levadia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.