Serie A · resolved market
Parma vs. Bologna: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x879a2675747c28dbea580f9ee2fe04abd3e91c8d0fbc36e23f5015bd7c06e210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 3,324$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.01 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 65c | 3,000$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 62c | 1,671$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.37 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.81 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5244…23d9backed Over | 63c | 648$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 39c | 515.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.38 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…0596backed Over | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Under | 63c | 188.51$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.76 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 58c | 152.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 60c | 96.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x569f…f8a4backed Over | 37c | 65.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe19…3c19backed Over | 37c | 42.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 35c | 38.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 35c | 33.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d60…50dbbacked Under | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Parma vs. Bologna: O/U 2.5this page
- Parma vs. Bologna: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Bologna (-0.5)Bologna won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.