Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87a5e067824bc6965704a3ef39edea91247cd1ec03d7fef1f4ca148ee288447d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof LGD Gaming, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Rune Eaters | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed LGD Gaming | 47c | 217.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked LGD Gaming | 47c | 126.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Rune Eaters | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked LGD Gaming | 40c | 107.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Rune Eaters | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked LGD Gaming | 47c | 95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked LGD Gaming | 41c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Rune Eaters | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Rune Eaters | 59c | 40.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Rune Eaters | 71c | 27.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Games of the Future PlayoffsRune Eaters won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerRune Eaters won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.