MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87fa8b6be85b84d85e251cf81a28b2da7589c665c81a8b2b15f841b29cb41d5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed New York Mets | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 939.98$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.06 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 76c | 888.57$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 580.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 295.09$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.89 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked New York Mets | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e0…1e8abacked New York Mets | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…2f92backed New York Mets | 57c | 176.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.74 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…d9f4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 110.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed New York Mets | 54c | 107.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed New York Mets | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked New York Mets | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed New York Mets | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Mets | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked New York Mets | 53c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 23.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed New York Mets | 56c | 20.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.