Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x880609e73b6f8fa883c8e4f2d6c6ac66aa0ffb2fa7d3865ed8a1e74467d2614c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 0c | 7,032$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…c210backed Yes | 10c | 999.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcd…3b61backed Yes | 23c | 205.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…19a4backed Yes | 11c | 183.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 11c | 168.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 15c | 154.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 140.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 132.46$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked Yes | 24c | 102.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 28c | 81.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 16c | 74.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 76c | 65.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 19c | 54.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 42.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 74c | 40.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 37.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 34.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 72c | 18.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 79c | 13.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 38°F or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.