Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25d90ac7ce3c5aa4cd7e08194908e295b13c26f2051ab2d57f89191eed7cb89f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 441.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.69 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 72c | 392.1$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.64 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 300.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 29c | 272.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.02 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 70c | 269.55$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 19c | 222.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 202.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5250…2772backed Yes | 77c | 184.37$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 169.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 24c | 148.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.47 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 146$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 143.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 66c | 140$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 29c | 129.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 32c | 120.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 23c | 108.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ad…b263backed Yes | 15c | 97.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9a…f9a4backed Yes | 23c | 91.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +344.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f0…a9b1backed Yes | 24c | 87.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 72.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 69.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 58c | 63.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 34c | 52.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 45c | 49.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 46.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 42c | 43.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 39c | 40.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 61c | 33.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 70c | 33.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes | 42c | 29.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 27.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 46c | 25.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 24.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaf…e2b8backed Yes | 59c | 22.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac10…35d3backed Yes | 55c | 19.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 77c | 17.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 72c | 16.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 79c | 13.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 38°F or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.