Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fca87ffd7d0328ba30b43fe7b2771e7a881b8417cad35b8a765853fc2485757
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 439.97$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.33 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…c210backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 196.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 69c | 189.39$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 58c | 185.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 25c | 168.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 48c | 132.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 67c | 119.54$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 55c | 111.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 32c | 106.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 37c | 106.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 47c | 105.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 52c | 105.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 103.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 101.32$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 36c | 101.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 33c | 89.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 82.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 67c | 78.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 28c | 74.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 42c | 69.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 63.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 59c | 60.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 32c | 53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 63c | 50.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 45.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 60c | 45.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 35c | 43.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 30c | 41.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 32c | 39.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed No | 56c | 37.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 31c | 36.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 40c | 35.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…2b4cbacked Yes | 51c | 32.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…b3fbbacked Yes | 32c | 31.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6745…3e52backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 67c | 30.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 42c | 28.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac10…35d3backed Yes | 53c | 28.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 73c | 26.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6f33backed Yes | 54c | 25.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 23.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 45c | 22.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…bed8backed No | 46c | 22.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 59c | 21.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…ebc4backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…1ce6backed No | 68c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 61c | 17.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe273…e74bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 38°F or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.