NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Kings: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x884cf6875b989fb4934a832105744151f9b6e94a03377fae3360a18d464129b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61de…ebaebacked Under | 53c | 23,686$12,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,132.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed8…0975backed Over | 47c | 23,666$11,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,123.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe1…cd30backed Over | 47c | 23,421$11,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,007.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…5d26backed Under | 53c | 23,405$12,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,000.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…99a7backed Under | 54c | 6,307$3,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,919.16 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 46c | 4,444$2,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,044.24 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Over | 47c | 1,394$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.18 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 54c | 1,103$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.38 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 572.22$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.22 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 463$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.98 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 341.11$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.73 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 268$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.96 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 124.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 46c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7980…feadbacked Under | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 48c | 40.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…2d88backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…20a3backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Kings: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. KingsKings won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.