College Football · resolved market
Arizona vs. Iowa State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x885033b344ce021418674d35a253fbc7f265b06fd1ee92b8e9a0d36a3cd980fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowa Stateof Arizona, Iowa State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Arizona | 14c | 3,596$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.44 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Iowa State | 65c | 2,567$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.73 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Arizona | 35c | 2,407$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.45 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arizona | 15c | 1,617$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.82 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6d23backed Iowa State | 65c | 1,540$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.99 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Iowa State | 63c | 1,291$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.87 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Arizona | 34c | 923$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.82 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona | 21c | 837.36$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.87 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Iowa State | 66c | 760$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.4 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Arizona | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Arizona | 34c | 384.82$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.84 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Iowa State | 66c | 354.05$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Iowa State | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Arizona | 17c | 302.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…e43bbacked Iowa State | 68c | 214.01$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Arizona | 12c | 196.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Arizona | 34c | 150.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Arizona | 39c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Arizona | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Iowa State | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Arizona | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cae…f15ebacked Iowa State | 64c | 77.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Iowa State | 64c | 73.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Iowa State | 66c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Iowa State | 66c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Arizona | 33c | 62.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Arizona | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef89…73e2backed Iowa State | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Arizona | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Arizona | 33c | 47.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Arizona | 34c | 43.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Arizona | 36c | 38.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Arizona | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Arizona | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…793bbacked Iowa State | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Iowa State | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona vs. Iowa Statethis page
- O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Iowa State (-5.5)Iowa State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.