Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8855c0b6373b5d1ab0bfd8bd0deee31fe15e5d52f52fcd607442bc26fa259eeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc273…51eabacked No | 1c | 3,771$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 69c | 697.93$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.82 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 561.98$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 202.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 78c | 186.2$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…8e23backed No | 42c | 158.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 76c | 111.91$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 17c | 109.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.13 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 99.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 16c | 86.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 76.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 70.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 70.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 20c | 55.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 39c | 48.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 25c | 44.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 36c | 43.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 60c | 32.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 31.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ce…7648backed No | 73c | 29.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed No | 53c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 67c | 16.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.