La Liga · resolved market
Granada CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8864d2fd4e3e574bcde2fbcd9df3af11fb2eed05cbfa012827836d495f21b6e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfced…2523backed Over | 51c | 6,834$3,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,485.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…07babacked Under | 49c | 6,829$3,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,482.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 64c | 2,784$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.86 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 1,772$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.35 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 36c | 1,697$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.83 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 51c | 1,080$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.73 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 52c | 308.01$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.17 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 33c | 179.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 75 | 73.3%55 W · 20 L | +20.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 17c | 85.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 170 | 36.5%62 W · 108 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 31c | 83.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d92…68e8backed Over | 55c | 82.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 54.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Under | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 36c | 30.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Under | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 78c | 27.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4105…1128backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Under | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Granada CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5this page
- Granada CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5Under won
- Granada CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5Under won
- Granada CF vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.