Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.80 December 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8874d99c76e0602d7bccee2e17010f1abbf21f3876f187fae4bf18ed65f7c4db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x359f…ab64backed Yes | 2c | 27,812$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 57c | 26,788$15,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,249.73 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…766dbacked No | 47c | 7,881$3,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,203.96 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 39c | 6,371$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455.29 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 43c | 2,836$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.54 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,221$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 39c | 853.59$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.62 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 35c | 845.75$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.79 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 51c | 498.91$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 50c | 400$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 36c | 348$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 303.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 176.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 56c | 166.72$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 8c | 145.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 49c | 117$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e2…5013backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…7efbbacked Yes | 36c | 98.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…e222backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 37c | 56.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed Yes | 57c | 51.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba6…822abacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 December 22-28?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 December 22-28?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 22-28?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 December 22-28?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 December 22-28?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.70 December 22-28?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 December 22-28?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.10 December 22-28?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 December 22-28?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.30 December 22-28?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 December 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.