Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x887d5164072479701208b1c8f4f3794e21c61509e4cb531de5f522de600123d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 49c | 2,038$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.09 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Over | 50c | 2,029$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.07 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Over | 50c | 1,086$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.89 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Under | 50c | 1,057$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 909 | 37.3%339 W · 570 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Over | 53c | 486.64$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.72 | 2,178 | 53.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L | +61.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Under | 48c | 425$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 564 | 32.1%181 W · 383 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 51c | 400$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 1,802 | 51.2%923 W · 879 L | +53.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked Under | 48c | 300.36$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Under | 51c | 98.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed Under | 51c | 97.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 48c | 84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d95…82e8backed Over | 51c | 43.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 55c | 37.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 751 | 42.1%316 W · 435 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…af5ebacked Under | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?this page
- Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5)FlyQuest won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier PlayoffsFlyQuest won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerFlyQuest won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.