Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb99d4d8236b0d1c19744df96d57f80e3980649563a5fc78c0e1549fbb694f60b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x509d…0a6bbacked Over | 59c | 10,004$5,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,084.71 | 670 | 56.9%381 W · 289 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…dd23backed Under | 40c | 2,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 57c | 1,805$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.05 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Under | 40c | 1,305$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…9d8cbacked Under | 42c | 1,200$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509 | 160 | 47.5%76 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Under | 43c | 773.12$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.9 | 592 | 48.3%286 W · 306 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…fc19backed Under | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -8.8wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…3783backed Under | 40c | 711.48$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.59 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56f…6ea8backed Under | 40c | 652$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Under | 45c | 641.33$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.53 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 780 | 50%390 W · 390 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 59c | 396.25$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Under | 40c | 366.59$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…4938backed Under | 40c | 359.57$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.83 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Under | 40c | 333.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.36 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed Under | 40c | 328.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 438 | 39.7%174 W · 264 L | -24.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8a…76a2backed Under | 40c | 327.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.18 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Under | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 242 | 35.5%86 W · 156 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 229 | 30.6%70 W · 159 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Under | 50c | 215.34$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 256 | 40.6%104 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…c58ebacked Under | 50c | 198.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3524backed Under | 40c | 192.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Under | 40c | 146.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 197 | 52.8%104 W · 93 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…1fbbbacked Under | 40c | 137.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00a8…c071backed Under | 40c | 130.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Over | 55c | 111.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 1,485 | 50.1%744 W · 741 L | +67.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed Under | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…edaabacked Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed Under | 49c | 96.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 50c | 45.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 203 | 32%65 W · 138 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?this page
- Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5)FlyQuest won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier PlayoffsFlyQuest won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerFlyQuest won
- LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.