Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x887daccfb70556d97a311e174193e6a2ff7329576f5996098a4d926466d2cd7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Fonseca, Rinderknech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rinderknech | 11c | 817.02$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Fonseca | 49c | 494.59$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.24 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Rinderknech | 10c | 390.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Rinderknech | 55c | 293.9$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.52 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Rinderknech | 57c | 256.37$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.13 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Rinderknech | 53c | 182.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…883cbacked Rinderknech | 56c | 174.61$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Fonseca | 47c | 162.12$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.93 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…5375backed Fonseca | 50c | 157.33$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…7cb3backed Rinderknech | 21c | 143.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rinderknech | 51c | 137.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1691…f891backed Rinderknech | 55c | 124.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 276 | 67%185 W · 91 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x782b…ff64backed Fonseca | 61c | 102.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 313 | 66.8%209 W · 104 L | +27.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Fonseca | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Fonseca | 48c | 80.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 323 | 33.4%108 W · 215 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Rinderknech | 53c | 65.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fonseca | 49c | 56.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Rinderknech | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Fonseca | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Fonseca | 38c | 48.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Fonseca | 45c | 45.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…39f2backed Rinderknech | 57c | 43.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked Rinderknech | 35c | 39.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Fonseca | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff88…601dbacked Rinderknech | 67c | 37.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Rinderknech | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x112e…0d1fbacked Rinderknech | 55c | 35.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 349 | 65%227 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…7c6bbacked Rinderknech | 55c | 31.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Rinderknech | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Fonseca | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef3…52aebacked Fonseca | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Fonseca | 48c | 29.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Fonseca | 47c | 29.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…1c8cbacked Rinderknech | 53c | 20.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)this page
- Arthur Rinderknech vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- BMW Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Joao FonsecaJoao Fonseca won
- Rinderknech vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs FonsecaFonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.