Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88adbc593c9f38c8311a2a4e9f06e3feaf0df8973647c8bfddf99974158e6641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xede1…b575backed Yes | 1c | 11,067$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 1c | 1,992$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,712$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,034$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 358.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…3d01backed No | 75c | 341.2$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 5c | 340.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 338$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 13c | 334.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 8c | 299.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 280.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed No | 72c | 204.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 151.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 16c | 148.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78df…1167backed Yes | 28c | 143$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 139.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 136.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 14c | 132.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9e…dcb3backed Yes | 45c | 121.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 15c | 116.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 20c | 94.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 90.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 34c | 83.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 82.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…f6b9backed No | 66c | 80.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 22c | 78.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 22c | 50.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 69c | 42.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8825backed No | 75c | 36.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 69c | 34.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 41c | 28.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…dd55backed No | 58c | 23.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 23.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 18.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.