South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Independiente Medellín vs. CA Juventud end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88b315a58851698ddd2d71b39314855a90720bf25e1e2b25a6b3fb6a146beb6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,909 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 17c | 1,486$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 6c | 765.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 109 | 22%24 W · 85 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 41c | 601.89$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.7 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 76c | 500.59$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.11 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 34c | 265.41$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 24c | 188.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 31c | 175.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 59c | 94.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a9…592dbacked Yes | 72c | 68.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 34c | 31.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 34c | 31.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…a8c6backed No | 55c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd0…4048backed No | 77c | 13.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Independiente Medellín vs. CA Juventud end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Juventud win on 2026-03-12?No won
- Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-03-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.