South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-03-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75e90577e9744c34534f437443e9c1d6c499404aec1df501c5d6bfdf5174412d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,606 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 1,929$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.69 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 56c | 1,697$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.15 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…cf56backed No | 7c | 693.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 45c | 649$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 109 | 22%24 W · 85 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 50c | 499.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 20c | 445.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 61c | 384.61$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.58 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 38c | 370.35$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.25 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 26c | 330.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.41 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 11c | 203.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522a…0076backed Yes | 67c | 201.45$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 78c | 181.9$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 33c | 146.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 32c | 142.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88c…14f1backed Yes | 43c | 130.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed No | 11c | 111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1082…2754backed Yes | 43c | 40.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 33c | 38.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…d5e7backed No | 49c | 36.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Yes | 66c | 36.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked No | 54c | 24.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 48c | 20.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 65c | 20.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 80c | 14.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-03-12?this page
- Will CA Juventud win on 2026-03-12?No won
- Will Independiente Medellín vs. CA Juventud end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.