Olympics · resolved market
Will Hellen Obiri (KEN) win gold in the Women’s Marathon?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88e440b5acbef7bfeb275f67913f6545f6aa316c1f2b3634077b801b0adc8ba5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed No | 65c | 3,905$2,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.68 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1508…01bdbacked Yes | 35c | 3,588$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 70c | 749.92$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.98 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 2c | 515$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…a3d6backed Yes | 30c | 256.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…e659backed Yes | 30c | 210$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…f250backed Yes | 31c | 197.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 27c | 188.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Yes | 34c | 151.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a3…d74fbacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 31c | 96.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 75c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc55b…cb38backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…16f2backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78df…cc90backed No | 68c | 72.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Yes | 30c | 67.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53f…4bc5backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…47ccbacked Yes | 38c | 65.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…e38bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd572…9f8abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 71c | 49.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…1605backed No | 56c | 39.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 72c | 33.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4db7…d20ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +213%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hellen Obiri (KEN) win gold in the Women’s Marathon?this page
- Will Amane Beriso Shankule (ETH) win gold in the Women’s Marathon?No won
- Will Lonah Chemtai Salpeter (ISR) win gold in the Women’s Marathon?No won
- Will Megetru Alemu (ETH) win gold in the Women’s Marathon?No won
- Will Peres Jepchirchir (KEN) win gold in the Women’s Marathon?No won
- Will Sharon Lokedi (KEN) win gold in the Women’s Marathon?No won
- Will Sifan Hassan (NED) win gold in the Women’s Marathon?Yes won
- Will Tigst Assefa (ETH) win gold in the Women’s Marathon?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.