Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Texas Longhorns (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88f7c2fef0a2a77e97187acc9ea676c7d7b9e2032653d0288b88b127d3a80167
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Longhornsof Texas Longhorns, BYU Cougars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,420 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed BYU Cougars | 51c | 14,286$7,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,306.09 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Texas Longhorns | 49c | 10,091$4,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,146.3 | 149 | 40.3%60 W · 89 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas Longhorns | 48c | 3,714$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.81 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Texas Longhorns | 45c | 319.01$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.04 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Texas Longhorns | 49c | 316.46$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.14 | 528 | 43.6%230 W · 298 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed BYU Cougars | 57c | 313.42$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.65 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked BYU Cougars | 47c | 206.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Texas Longhorns | 53c | 198.26$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.18 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…286cbacked Texas Longhorns | 52c | 49.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed BYU Cougars | 48c | 49.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Texas Longhorns | 48c | 36.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Longhorns (-4.5)this page
- Spread: BYU Cougars (-1.5)Texas Longhorns won
- Spread: BYU Cougars (-2.5)Texas Longhorns won
- Texas Longhorns vs. BYU CougarsTexas Longhorns won
- Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars: O/U 157.5Under won
- Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars: O/U 158.5Under won
- Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars: O/U 163.5Under won
- Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars: O/U 165.5Under won
- Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars: O/U 166.5Under won
- Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars: O/U 169.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.