Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x890be55125bfd8a080eca99ad253cc6423ae8a26c8363c3dddc8b9060109b909
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Muchova, Kalinskaya
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Kalinskaya | 3c | 952$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Muchova | 45c | 776.42$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.42 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kalinskaya | 36c | 643.7$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.43 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kalinskaya | 57c | 411$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.27 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…422abacked Kalinskaya | 47c | 222.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Muchova | 69c | 144.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…c91fbacked Muchova | 52c | 133.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Kalinskaya | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf77…ee92backed Muchova | 69c | 112.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Muchova | 57c | 98.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Kalinskaya | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,266 | 34.2%433 W · 833 L | -43.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Kalinskaya | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Kalinskaya | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Muchova | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…09d6backed Muchova | 66c | 43.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Kalinskaya | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…c202backed Muchova | 52c | 20.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Kalinskaya | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Kalinskaya (+1.5)this page
- Muchova vs. Kalinskaya: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Muchova vs. Kalinskaya: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Qatar Total Open: Karolina Muchova vs Anna KalinskayaMuchova won
- Set 1 Winner: Muchova vs KalinskayaMuchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.