Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Stray Team vs Travoman Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x891e31886287d46b26f6f5921ee0c2e0e72b59b5097e1a3cf244e37ffdab0693
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Travoman Teamof Stray Team, Travoman Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Travoman Team | 75c | 1,608$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.28 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Stray Team | 46c | 875.82$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.29 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…47edbacked Stray Team | 26c | 799.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Travoman Team | 55c | 636.36$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.36 | 474 | 50.8%241 W · 233 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Travoman Team | 55c | 521.75$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.79 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Stray Team | 29c | 384.39$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 1,691 | 41.4%700 W · 991 L | -40.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Stray Team | 45c | 282.67$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed Stray Team | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…be27backed Travoman Team | 56c | 177.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 210 | 47.6%100 W · 110 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf897…8453backed Travoman Team | 68c | 171.94$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Stray Team | 16c | 151$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 1,113 | 36.2%403 W · 710 L | -37.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…5d73backed Stray Team | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f12…03b6backed Stray Team | 50c | 101.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…50d4backed Stray Team | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Travoman Team | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 364 | 52.5%191 W · 173 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Stray Team | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 675 | 46.1%311 W · 364 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a3…fad7backed Stray Team | 46c | 41.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3241…cca8backed Stray Team | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Travoman Team | 50c | 35.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Stray Team vs Travoman Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Stray Team vs Travoman Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle PlayoffsTravoman Team won
- Dota 2: Stray Team vs Travoman Team - Game 1 WinnerTravoman Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.