Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8926d6bb8b3fb72ef586de026f4cc7cc442b2127c53f755c961f05861a4a2d12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 39c | 760.48$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.39 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 33c | 320.57$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.09 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 24c | 291.34$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 51c | 258.46$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.73 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 36c | 255.36$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…6220backed No | 78c | 210.82$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 23c | 199.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 167.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.61 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 160.33$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 39c | 144.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 44c | 142.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 53c | 124.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 20c | 119.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked No | 21c | 119.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 64c | 113.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 68c | 102.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…a144backed Yes | 21c | 102$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 58c | 100.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 98.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 42c | 96.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 50c | 75.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 57c | 69.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 47c | 62.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked No | 80c | 62.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 21c | 54.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 47c | 53.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 48c | 48.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 70c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…b7e0backed No | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…3b53backed No | 27c | 47.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 73c | 41.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 34.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 30.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 79c | 24.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 22.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa97b…c795backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…dde1backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 77c | 19.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 62c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.