Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $80 March 9-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8932e325b5b7b138222187992ee6cbdb60d75ff35f8d72c312597b66a1dd92f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,543 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 11c | 4,712$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.27 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 6c | 1,536$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 8c | 520.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…08b1backed Yes | 44c | 493.7$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.29 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4b0dbacked Yes | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 6c | 392.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 353.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 313.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 7c | 273.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…6207backed Yes | 6c | 199.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 6c | 199.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…3b56backed No | 53c | 193.79$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc122…79bbbacked No | 53c | 193.79$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…e0a4backed Yes | 7c | 179.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…5667backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…ca9abacked No | 72c | 79.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…f5d1backed Yes | 35c | 38.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $80 March 9-15?this page
- Will Solana dip to $20 March 9-15?No won
- Will Solana dip to $30 March 9-15?No won
- Will Solana dip to $50 March 9-15?No won
- Will Solana dip to $60 March 9-15?No won
- Will Solana dip to $70 March 9-15?No won
- Will Solana reach $100 March 9-15?No won
- Will Solana reach $110 March 9-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.