Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs NAVI Junior - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x893529a64fbbb8fcb8a9344570eb19879109e202b40838f26fd003a8ed76f964
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NAVI Juniorof Yellow Submarine, NAVI Junior
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc537…f385backed Yellow Submarine | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked Yellow Submarine | 66c | 791.34$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.66 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Yellow Submarine | 63c | 517.56$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.2 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Yellow Submarine | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…fadbbacked Yellow Submarine | 4c | 380$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe73f…1989backed Yellow Submarine | 65c | 306.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.43per pick | 55cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed NAVI Junior | 35c | 270.22$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.96 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed NAVI Junior | 61c | 229.15$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Yellow Submarine | 73c | 186.11$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed NAVI Junior | 31c | 173.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7f…c092backed NAVI Junior | 14c | 112.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b2…b787backed NAVI Junior | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed NAVI Junior | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a5…6d4bbacked NAVI Junior | 32c | 67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Yellow Submarine | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yellow Submarine | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs NAVI Junior - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs NAVI Junior - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs NAVI Junior (+1.5)NAVI Junior won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.