NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Red Wings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x894517b7efcd05c2288e63f334c4689b21a7623be1c8c0bdbd369dbcde471cde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avalancheof Avalanche, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Red Wings | 34c | 684.23$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.64 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Avalanche | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Red Wings | 34c | 285.34$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Avalanche | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Avalanche | 66c | 200$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Red Wings | 15c | 127.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…0505backed Red Wings | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Red Wings | 34c | 99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Avalanche | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 96 | 65.6%63 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Avalanche | 74c | 75.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…bb37backed Red Wings | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Red Wings | 35c | 46.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe680…7b30backed Avalanche | 66c | 45.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…d5d4backed Red Wings | 36c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…b250backed Avalanche | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce4…7addbacked Avalanche | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe563…398bbacked Avalanche | 63c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a2…866dbacked Avalanche | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.