Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89ba7fb9f26b84342883490a472ff2f32fa16728cc501dd74467890854b7f62f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,332 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 575.82$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 64c | 539.23$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.56 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 448$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 430.82$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 19c | 425.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 40c | 300$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 244.24$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 60c | 230.92$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 76c | 228.46$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…c210backed Yes | 32c | 227.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 34c | 200.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 34c | 175.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 15c | 171$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…f7d2backed Yes | 39c | 165.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 72c | 165.05$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 152.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 147.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked No | 65c | 147.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 34c | 147.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 38c | 146.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 36c | 140.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ea…8e24backed Yes | 28c | 139.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 120.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 119.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e6…4879backed No | 79c | 116.3$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…dd88backed Yes | 36c | 112.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 65c | 107.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 106.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 20c | 89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 88.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 29c | 88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 21c | 85.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…0d2abacked No | 66c | 83.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 73.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed Yes | 33c | 73.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 35c | 72.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 33c | 72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 15c | 71.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 66.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 36c | 65.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 34c | 62.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb43…2a6bbacked Yes | 17c | 61.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 59.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 62c | 59.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 75c | 58.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 70c | 57.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…9047backed Yes | 25c | 54.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…c872backed Yes | 22c | 51.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 50.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 46.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed No | 73c | 44.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 36c | 44.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 43.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…ee48backed Yes | 37c | 40.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 79c | 37.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 68c | 37.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 70c | 32.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 42c | 30.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ced…574abacked No | 71c | 28.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 70c | 25.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7852…6fc0backed No | 67c | 20.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 18.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 75c | 13.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.