Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa322fdbb8809dcab7a48ecdbfef67f4c2a1f32c480623a973708cc7b7d462b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,027 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c6d…33a6backed No | 1c | 3,230$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b94…9663backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d33…75fcbacked No | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…a2b6backed No | 1c | 1,682$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 56c | 454.92$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.54 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 440.9$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.32 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 433.4$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 376.86$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 53c | 304.64$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.64 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 61c | 295.82$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 59c | 287.5$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.72 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 10c | 273.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 11c | 235.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 5c | 233.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 47c | 214.79$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 46c | 205.65$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.31 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 200.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.97 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 174.34$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…4054backed Yes | 58c | 172.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 63c | 171.14$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 48c | 165.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 60c | 164$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…7477backed Yes | 43c | 160.68$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 48c | 150.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 33c | 118.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked No | 38c | 118.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 40c | 108.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 53c | 107.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 107.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 105.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 65c | 101.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 98.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 43c | 96.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 65c | 96.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 64c | 96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 43c | 94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 50c | 92.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…0d2abacked No | 60c | 91.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 63c | 84.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 46c | 76.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 35c | 76.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 35c | 69.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 40c | 69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…79e3backed No | 57c | 69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 68.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 65c | 61.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 59.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc3…f918backed No | 57c | 56.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 45c | 56.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 40c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 34c | 55.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 33c | 53.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 50.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…90aebacked No | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 51c | 49.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 38c | 47.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 72c | 44.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…44dbbacked Yes | 65c | 43.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 76c | 42.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…503abacked No | 58c | 40.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 64c | 39.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 39c | 38.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…b9b3backed No | 63c | 37.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 66c | 37.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 51c | 37.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 30c | 36.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 51c | 36.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 63c | 35.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 46c | 34.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…f7d2backed Yes | 58c | 34.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 41c | 34.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked No | 58c | 33.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 33.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 63c | 33.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 65c | 30.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 74c | 30.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 40c | 30.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…fec8backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…c069backed No | 49c | 29.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.