Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f1aec51b56d741921b6396d39af386ec2389dfad103d83a43323bd59ed6dd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 17c | 999.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.23 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 20c | 179$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 14c | 178$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 38c | 176.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 31c | 129.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 16c | 91.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 87.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 67.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 76c | 32.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8c…e0f6backed No | 79c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 25.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 77c | 18.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…e9bfbacked No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 78c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdb…b241backed No | 71c | 15.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1586…cd6cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.