Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a103d8d3a8f4a8654117381b651540073688a4e56037ac185d5216d6cf94808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, GIANTX
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe308…25cdbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 9,188$3,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,978.96 | 664 | 37.2%247 W · 417 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f78…f679backed GIANTX | 65c | 5,240$3,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,406 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed GIANTX | 65c | 2,505$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.25 | 1,521 | 50.6%769 W · 752 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed GIANTX | 65c | 902.66$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.82 | 1,225 | 49.6%607 W · 618 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.43 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…819abacked GIANTX | 65c | 429.23$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 376 | 40.2%151 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed GIANTX | 67c | 370.15$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 650 | 63.2%411 W · 239 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 152.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 923 | 42.7%394 W · 529 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed GIANTX | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 316 | 50.3%159 W · 157 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked GIANTX | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -19.4wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed GIANTX | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 390 | 56.4%220 W · 170 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…3d70backed GIANTX | 65c | 89.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed GIANTX | 65c | 67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 608 | 49.5%301 W · 307 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 51.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 611 | 50.6%309 W · 302 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…7e5dbacked GIANTX | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 204 | 63.2%129 W · 75 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e8…ef2bbacked GIANTX | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 645 | 56.6%365 W · 280 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.